The Post-16 Cliff Edge: Ensuring Learners Aren’t Being Left Behind

We are delighted to share the reflections of Michael Lemin, Head of Policy at NCFE, on the interim Independent Review of Curriculum and Assessmentreport that highlights key challenges in England’s education system, including the lack of early SEND support, rising NEET numbers, and economic barriers to post-16 education. Michael argues that without better identification of learner needs, clearer pathways into education and employment, and stronger support for disadvantaged students, many young people will continue to face significant barriers. While the review does not yet propose solutions, its findings underscore the urgent need for systemic change to ensure education works for all.

In March, the Independent Review of Curriculum and Assessment, led by Prof Becky Francis, published its interim report. The review had a wide scope, covering curriculum and assessment in England from key stages 1-5.

The report draws clear lines around the many positive things in our current system; in line with the ‘evolution, not revolution’ approach described at the outset. It also reiterates the scope of the Review and, despite receiving evidence to suggest that practice, resourcing and implementation have an impact, will retain its focus on the content of the national curriculum and the effectiveness of the assessment system.

At this stage, the report identifies some big issues and problems but stops short of recommending any concrete actions, but how can we ensure that the whole system is working for everyone and avoid the post-16 cliff edge that many learners are facing.  

Special Educational Needs and/or Disabilities (SEND) often hits the headlines for all the wrong reasons. We know that waiting lists for diagnosis can stretch into years during key developmental periods for young people. This means schools have children with unidentified needs, making it almost impossible for educators to properly support them in the classroom.

What this means for post-16 education is that learners can arrive with a profoundly negative feeling towards education as a whole – and that’s if they choose to continue at all. We need to start thinking more long term and introduce learner diagnostics at the very beginning of their journey if we are to better understand individual needs and abilities.

This would then empower educators to confidently and more efficiently support their learners and give post-16 providers a clear record of their needs, strengths and areas for development. But we also need to support the educators themselves. Alongside greater awareness must be greater access to professional development opportunities related to SEND.

NEET numbers (those not in employment, education or training) in the UK are swiftly approaching the unenviable total of one million.

The Office for National Statistics estimates 987,000 young people aged 16 to 24 (13.4% of that age group) were classed as NEET between October and December 2024. That was a 41,000 increase on estimates for July to September and almost 300,000 higher than the same period in 2021 when the UK was emerging from the pandemic.

This is where we need to look at ensuring learners can access the correct pathway for their needs and ambitions.

In 2024, for example, we saw the highest first-quarter apprenticeship starts in four years overall, but the lowest number of Level 2 starts. Higher level apprenticeships, those at Levels 4 to 7, rose by 8% compared to the previous year, whereas Level 2 apprenticeships fell by 5%.

We have already seen some changes by the government in this area. Employers can now decide whether adult learners over the age of 19 will need to complete a Level 2 English and maths qualification (equivalent to GCSE) to pass.

According to the government, this means more learners can qualify in high-demand sectors such as healthcare, social care, and construction and could mean as many as 10,000 more apprentices per year, “unlocking opportunity in communities all over the country and breaking the link between background and success.”

We will see if these changes impact on the NEET numbers, but we can’t look at one pathway without considering the system as a whole. Through the ongoing qualification reforms, for example, we need to better understand the impact that removing those defunded qualifications will have on learners.

Away from what’s happening in the classroom and the changes we can make to pathways, we also need to consider the wider disadvantages learners are experiencing that are impacting their ability to continue with education after the age of 16.

One of the principal challenges at the moment is economic disadvantage. This could be boiled down to where you live and how much it costs to travel to your nearest college. We know there are huge differences in provision depending on if you live in a rural or coastal setting versus urban.

But beyond that there are the supplementary costs, such as food, clothes, and course materials. There are the costs associated with work placements, whether the learner needs to also have a part-time job alongside their studies, or do they have additional caring responsibilities.

All of this not only impacts the decision of the learner but also those around them, such as parents, caregivers, or grandparents, and can be the difference between starting a course or not.

We also need to think about how to re-engage learners if they leave education. Whether that’s from having a bad previous experience or something sudden and unexpected like the death of a parent.

Colleges have become the first line of support for people within their communities but aren’t being empowered to tackle the local issues they see firsthand. If they are to become true anchor institutions, they must be given the tools and resources to ensure their learners are able to continue in education and fulfill their ambitions.

This review is incredibly important, and we cannot expect the recommendations to solve all of the problems that we see in curriculum and assessment.

However, we should rightly expect to see recommendations that help to narrow the disadvantage gap and level the playing field for those who face increased barriers to achievement. Every young person should have the opportunity to succeed.

The review has collected evidence from over 7,000 submissions to inform its work. The interim report and the panel’s focus on ensuring that the system works for all should be cause for optimism, and we look forward to seeing the final report in the autumn.